# San Marino vs Belarus Prediction & Betting Tips – UEFA Nations League, 12 November 2026
⚪ 🔵 **San Marino**
🔴 🟢 **Belarus**
**Main Prediction:** Belarus to Win
**Correct Score:** San Marino 0-2 Belarus
**Both Teams to Score:** No
**Total Goals:** Under 3.5 Goals
San Marino host Belarus at the San Marino Stadium in Serravalle on Thursday, 12 November 2026, in an important UEFA Nations League League C Group 1 encounter. The home side will be looking to produce a more competitive performance after suffering a heavy defeat in the reverse fixture, while Belarus arrive with a considerably stronger position in the group and a realistic opportunity to collect another three points.
The difference between these national teams is apparent in their recent competitive performances. San Marino have struggled to create consistent attacking opportunities against stronger European opposition, while Belarus have demonstrated greater defensive organization, better midfield control and a more effective approach in the final third.
The previous meeting between these sides took place on 3 October 2026, when Belarus secured a convincing 4-0 victory. That result provides an important reference point for this encounter, although playing away from home presents Belarus with a different tactical challenge.
San Marino should benefit from familiar surroundings and the motivation of playing in front of their home supporters. However, their ability to withstand sustained pressure and prevent Belarus from creating opportunities will be central to their chances.
Belarus are expected to control more of the possession, use their greater attacking quality to create chances and attempt to score early. San Marino are likely to adopt a compact defensive structure, protect the central areas and look for occasional counterattacks and set-piece opportunities.
The most likely outcome is another Belarus victory, although the possibility of a more competitive scoreline than the previous meeting should not be dismissed.
---
## 1. 🔮 Quick Match Prediction
The prediction strongly favours Belarus because of their superior recent results, defensive consistency, previous head-to-head performances and stronger position in the Nations League group.
San Marino have demonstrated occasional defensive resilience, but their recent record against higher-ranked European opponents highlights the difficulty they face when trying to maintain defensive concentration throughout an entire match.
Belarus have more reasons to approach this fixture with confidence. Their previous 4-0 victory demonstrated their ability to exploit San Marino's defensive weaknesses, while their subsequent 1-0 victory against Finland reinforced their competitive improvement.
### 📊 Match Win Probabilities
The following percentages are editorial probability estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
| Match Outcome | Probability |
|---|---:|
| Home Win – San Marino | 5% |
| Draw | 12% |
| Away Win – Belarus | 83% |
| **Total** | **100%** |
**Home Win: 5%**
**Draw: 12%**
**Away Win: 83%**
### 🔮 Complete Prediction Summary
| Prediction Category | Selection |
|---|---|
| Predicted Winner | 🔴 🟢 Belarus |
| Correct Score | 0-2 |
| Home Win | 5% |
| Draw | 12% |
| Away Win | 83% |
| Both Teams to Score | No |
| Total Goals | Under 3.5 |
| Alternative Goals | Under 2.5 |
| Double Chance | X2 |
| First-Half Prediction | Belarus or Draw |
| Half-Time Score | 0-1 |
| Second-Half Prediction | Belarus to Win the Second Half |
| Second-Half Score | 0-1 |
| Prediction Confidence | High |
### ⚽ Predicted Winner: Belarus
Belarus have the stronger overall profile and should be capable of controlling the important phases of the game.
Their defensive organization is particularly relevant because San Marino have struggled to score consistently in this competition. Belarus have also demonstrated the ability to win without conceding, making the away victory combined with a clean sheet an attractive analytical possibility.
### 🎯 Goals Prediction
Under 3.5 goals is the preferred selection.
Although Belarus won the previous encounter 4-0, the home side may prioritize defensive stability and avoid allowing the visitors too much space. A controlled 0-2 result is therefore the primary prediction.
### 🧠 Confidence Assessment
---
## 2. 🏟️ Match Information
The match is part of the 2026 UEFA Nations League campaign and belongs to League C, Group 1.
San Marino have home advantage, with the match scheduled to take place at their national stadium in Serravalle.
### 📋 Match Details
| Category | Information |
|---|---|
| Home Team | ⚪ 🔵 San Marino |
| Away Team | 🔴 🟢 Belarus |
| Competition | UEFA Nations League |
| League | League C |
| Group | Group 1 |
| Season | 2026 |
| Round | Matchday 5 |
| Match Date | Thursday, 12 November 2026 |
| Kickoff Time | 20:45 |
| Time Zone | San Marino Local Time (CET) |
| Stadium | San Marino Stadium |
| City | Serravalle |
| Country | San Marino |
| Home Manager | Roberto Cevoli |
| Away Manager | Not independently confirmed |
| Referee | Goga Kikacheishvili |
| VAR | Not independently confirmed |
### 🏟️ Venue Analysis
San Marino Stadium is the home venue for the national team and provides the hosts with familiarity regarding the pitch, surroundings and matchday conditions.
Playing at home can help a smaller national team remain competitive through greater defensive commitment and crowd support.
However, the venue advantage does not automatically eliminate the technical and physical differences between the two squads.
Belarus should be comfortable playing away from home, particularly if they establish possession early and prevent San Marino from building confidence.
### ⏱️ Match Importance
This fixture is important for both teams.
- **San Marino:** An opportunity to improve their competitive record and demonstrate progress against stronger opposition.
- **Belarus:** An opportunity to strengthen their position in Group 1 and continue their positive results.
Belarus will probably approach the match with a greater emphasis on obtaining all three points, while San Marino may consider avoiding another heavy defeat an important objective.
---
## 3. 📊 League Standings and Season Comparison
The League C Group 1 standings provide one of the clearest indications of the difference between the teams entering this fixture.
After four completed matches, Belarus have collected seven points, while San Marino remain without a point.
### 📊 Group 1 Standings Before Matchday 5
| Position | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | -15 | 0 |
### ⚽ Season Performance Comparison
| Statistic | ⚪ 🔵 San Marino | 🔴 🟢 Belarus |
|---|---:|---:|
| Matches Played | 4 | 4 |
| Wins | 0 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 5 |
| Goals Conceded | 16 | 2 |
| Goal Difference | -15 | +3 |
| Points | 0 | 7 |
| Goals Per Match | 0.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded Per Match | 4.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean Sheets | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to Score | 3 | 2 |
### ⚽ Attacking Analysis
**⚪ 🔵 San Marino**
San Marino have scored only once in four group matches.
Their attacking output has been restricted by difficulties progressing the ball through midfield and creating clear opportunities against organized defensive units.
One positive development is the contribution of Lorenzo Lazzari, who scored San Marino's goal in the 2-1 defeat against Albania.
The team have been working towards a more proactive approach, with midfielders encouraged to retain possession and support the forwards.
Nevertheless, converting possession into dangerous opportunities remains a significant challenge.
**🔴 🟢 Belarus**
Belarus have scored five goals in four matches.
Their attacking statistics are considerably stronger, although their approach has generally been more controlled than excessively aggressive.
Artem Kontsevoy and Artem Shumanskiy have each scored twice in the Nations League campaign according to the available pre-match statistics.
Their ability to create opportunities through midfield combinations, forward movement and transitions should present a difficult challenge for San Marino.
### 🛡️ Defensive Analysis
The defensive comparison strongly favours Belarus.
San Marino have conceded 16 goals, an average of four per match. This indicates problems maintaining defensive distances and dealing with sustained pressure.
Belarus have conceded only two goals in four games and have recorded three clean sheets.
Their defensive structure has been particularly effective when protecting central spaces and forcing opponents into less dangerous attacking areas.
**Statistical advantage:** Belarus have conceded 14 fewer goals than San Marino in the first four group matches.
This is a major factor behind the away team's status as the favourite.
### 📈 Overall Season Assessment
Belarus possess advantages in attacking efficiency, defensive organization, points accumulated and recent competitive momentum.
San Marino need a significant improvement in their defensive concentration if they are to prevent another defeat.
---
## 4. 📈 Home Team Recent Form and Performance – San Marino
⚪ 🔵 San Marino enter this fixture following a difficult sequence of results in the Nations League.
Their most recent performances have highlighted both defensive vulnerabilities and the difficulty of scoring against stronger international opponents.
However, their recent defeat against Albania also contained an encouraging attacking moment.
### 📋 Last Five Verified Matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | Albania | Away | 1-2 | ❌ Loss |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Belarus | Away | 0-4 | ❌ Loss |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Albania | Home | 0-3 | ❌ Loss |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Finland | Home | 0-7 | ❌ Loss |
| 9 Jun 2026 | Azerbaijan | Away | 1-2 | ❌ Loss |
### 📊 Recent Form Statistics
| Statistic | Last Five Matches |
|---|---:|
| Wins | 0 |
| Draws | 0 |
| Losses | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 18 |
| Average Goals Scored | 0.40 |
| Average Goals Conceded | 3.60 |
| Clean Sheets | 0 |
| Failed to Score | 3 |
### 🏠 Home Performance
San Marino have struggled to turn home advantage into positive results.
Their two home matches in this Nations League group produced defeats against Finland and Albania.
| Home Match | Score |
|---|---:|
| San Marino vs Finland | 0-7 |
| San Marino vs Albania | 0-3 |
| **Total Goals Scored** | **0** |
| **Total Goals Conceded** | **10** |
The numbers demonstrate that home advantage has not yet translated into defensive stability.
Nevertheless, San Marino may approach this fixture differently, particularly because they will want to avoid another heavy defeat in front of their supporters.
### ⚽ Attacking Performance
San Marino have recently attempted to become more ambitious in possession.
Head coach Roberto Cevoli has discussed the team's development, particularly the use of two forwards supported by technically capable midfielders.
Lorenzo Lazzari is an important component of this approach.
His equalizer against Albania demonstrated that San Marino can create opportunities when they move the ball forward quickly and support their attackers.
The main concern is consistency.
The hosts need to create more opportunities without exposing their defensive line to dangerous counterattacks.
### 🛡️ Defensive Performance
San Marino's defensive problems are primarily related to:
- Difficulty maintaining compact defensive lines.
- Space between the midfield and defensive units.
- Problems defending wide combinations.
- Limited ability to sustain pressure when opponents circulate possession.
- Loss of concentration during repeated attacking phases.
Against Belarus, these weaknesses could become particularly important if the visitors score early.
### 🧠 Tactical Assessment
San Marino are expected to use a compact structure, probably with four defenders and a midfield designed to protect the central areas.
Their best opportunity may come from:
1. Maintaining defensive discipline.
2. Avoiding unnecessary turnovers.
3. Using Lorenzo Lazzari to progress possession.
4. Exploiting transitions when Belarus move forward.
5. Attacking set pieces whenever possible.
The hosts should not attempt to compete with Belarus through uncontrolled attacking football.
A disciplined performance is likely to give them their best chance of remaining competitive.
---
## 5. 📈 Away Team Recent Form and Performance – Belarus
🔴 🟢 Belarus arrive in Serravalle with a significantly stronger recent competitive record.
Their Nations League performances have demonstrated improved defensive organization, greater consistency and the ability to secure results against different types of opponents.
Their previous 4-0 victory over San Marino provides additional confidence ahead of the return fixture.
### 📋 Last Five Verified Matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | Finland | Home | 1-0 | ✅ Win |
| 3 Oct 2026 | San Marino | Home | 4-0 | ✅ Win |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Finland | Away | 0-0 | 🤝 Draw |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Albania | Away | 0-2 | ❌ Loss |
| 9 Jun 2026 | Burkina Faso | Home | 2-2 | 🤝 Draw |
### 📊 Recent Form Statistics
| Statistic | Last Five Matches |
|---|---:|
| Wins | 2 |
| Draws | 2 |
| Losses | 1 |
| Goals Scored | 7 |
| Goals Conceded | 4 |
| Average Goals Scored | 1.40 |
| Average Goals Conceded | 0.80 |
| Clean Sheets | 3 |
| Failed to Score | 2 |
### ✈️ Away Performance
Belarus have demonstrated that they can remain defensively organized away from home.
Their 0-0 draw against Finland and 0-2 defeat against Albania show that their away performances have involved relatively controlled scorelines.
| Away Opponent | Score |
|---|---:|
| Finland | 0-0 |
| Albania | 0-2 |
Belarus have not scored in either of these two away group matches, which is a relevant consideration when evaluating their attacking expectations.
However, San Marino represent a different defensive challenge from Finland and Albania.
The visitors should have more opportunities to establish attacking pressure and create chances in the final third.
### ⚽ Attacking Performance
Belarus have scored five goals in their first four group matches.
Their attack benefits from players capable of making forward runs, combining around the penalty area and exploiting spaces created by opposing defenders.
Artem Kontsevoy is one of the important attacking players, having scored twice in the competition.
Valeriy Gromyko is another player worth monitoring because of his ability to contribute creatively from midfield and the wider attacking areas.
The main objective should be to move the ball quickly enough to prevent San Marino from establishing a comfortable defensive block.
### 🛡️ Defensive Performance
Belarus have conceded only two goals in four matches.
Their defensive organization has been a major strength.
They can defend with a relatively compact shape, keep their midfield close to the defensive line and limit opponents' opportunities through the centre.
Against San Marino, Belarus should have the opportunity to defend higher up the pitch, although they must remain alert to counterattacks.
### 🧠 Tactical Assessment
Belarus are expected to use a 4-2-3-1 formation.
This structure provides:
- Two midfielders protecting the defensive line.
- Three advanced midfielders supporting the striker.
- Full-backs capable of providing width.
- Flexibility when pressing San Marino's defenders.
- Multiple passing options around the penalty area.
Belarus should be comfortable controlling possession and gradually increasing their attacking pressure.
Their priority will be to score without compromising their defensive structure.
---
## 6. 🤝 Head-to-Head Record
The historical record between these national teams strongly favours Belarus.
There have been three verified competitive meetings before the current fixture, and Belarus have won all three.
### 📋 Previous Meetings
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | Competition |
|---|---|---:|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | Belarus | 4-0 | San Marino | Nations League |
| 18 Nov 2018 | San Marino | 0-2 | Belarus | Nations League |
| 8 Sep 2018 | Belarus | 5-0 | San Marino | Nations League |
### 📊 Head-to-Head Statistics
| Statistic | San Marino | Belarus |
|---|---:|---:|
| Wins | 0 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Goals Scored | 0 | 11 |
| Goals Conceded | 11 | 0 |
| Clean Sheets | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to Score | 3 | 0 |
### ⚽ Goal Trends
The three meetings produced 11 goals.
- Average goals per match: 3.67.
- Belarus scored in all three matches.
- San Marino failed to score in all three.
- Both Teams to Score: No in all three meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals: Two of three matches.
- Under 3.5 goals: Two of three matches.
These numbers suggest a consistent competitive advantage for Belarus.
### 🏟️ Previous Meetings in San Marino
The last previous meeting hosted by San Marino took place on 18 November 2018.
Belarus won that encounter 2-0.
The result is particularly relevant because it demonstrates that Belarus have previously managed to secure a clean-sheet victory in Serravalle.
### 🧠 Head-to-Head Assessment
Belarus have demonstrated the ability to control these encounters and prevent San Marino from scoring.
Although historical results cannot determine the outcome of a new match, the combination of three victories, 11 goals scored and zero goals conceded provides a strong supporting argument for another Belarus victory.
---
## 7. 🩺 Home Team News and Key Players – San Marino
⚪ 🔵 San Marino have some important availability considerations ahead of this match.
The latest information from the national team's pre-match preparations confirms several developments involving injuries, suspensions and returning players.
### 🩺 Injury and Availability Update
| Player | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Michele Cevoli | ❌ Injured | Confirmed unavailable |
| Nicolas Giacopetti | ❌ Suspended | One-match suspension |
| Tommaso Benvenuti | Returning | Could feature after a lengthy absence |
| Andrea Contadini | Returning | Could feature after a lengthy absence |
| Filippo Berardi | Unavailable | Has not yet been able to play during the current period |
The return of Tommaso Benvenuti and Andrea Contadini could provide additional options, although their involvement should not be considered guaranteed.
Giacopetti's suspension is particularly relevant because he is an attacking option who has contributed to the team's forward play.
### ⭐ Key Players
**⭐ Lorenzo Lazzari – Midfielder**
Lazzari is one of San Marino's important creative players.
He scored against Albania in the previous international fixture, demonstrating his ability to contribute in attacking situations.
His technical qualities and willingness to receive the ball between the lines could be important against Belarus.
**⭐ Alessandro Golinucci – Midfielder**
Golinucci provides experience and physical presence in midfield.
His responsibilities may include disrupting Belarusian passing combinations, protecting the defensive line and helping San Marino transition into attack.
**⭐ Filippo Fabbri – Defender**
Fabbri is an important defensive option.
His positioning, defensive awareness and ability to organize the back line will be essential against Belarus's attacking movement.
**⭐ Nicola Nanni – Forward**
Nanni offers another attacking option for the hosts.
His ability to occupy defenders and provide a target for forward passes could be useful if San Marino decide to play more directly.
**⭐ Edoardo Colombo – Goalkeeper**
Colombo is one of the experienced goalkeeping options in the squad.
If selected, his positioning and shot-stopping ability could play a major role in keeping the match competitive.
### 🧠 Impact of Team News
The absence of Giacopetti reduces San Marino's attacking options, while Michele Cevoli's injury affects the defensive selection.
The possible returns of Benvenuti and Contadini provide some encouragement, but the hosts still face selection challenges.
Their most important requirement will be to maintain defensive organization and avoid conceding early.
---
## 8. 🩺 Away Team News and Key Players – Belarus
🔴 🟢 Belarus have a stronger overall competitive profile, but they also have an important confirmed availability issue.
### 🩺 Injury and Suspension Update
| Player | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Artem Shumanskiy | ❌ Suspended | Reported one-match suspension |
| Other players | Not confirmed | No additional absences independently established |
The suspension of Shumanskiy is relevant because he has scored twice in the current Nations League campaign.
His absence could influence Belarus's attacking selection, particularly in the final third.
No additional injury claims should be treated as confirmed without an official team announcement.
### ⭐ Key Players
**⭐ Artem Kontsevoy – Forward**
Kontsevoy is one of Belarus's most important attacking players.
He has scored twice in the Nations League campaign and represents a significant goal threat.
His movement around the penalty area and ability to exploit defensive mistakes could be particularly useful against San Marino.
**⭐ Valeriy Gromyko – Attacking Midfielder**
Gromyko offers creativity and attacking support.
He can help connect midfield possession with the forward line, while his movement into advanced positions may create additional problems for the home defence.
**⭐ Maks Ebong – Midfielder**
Ebong provides energy and physical presence in midfield.
His ability to win challenges and contribute to transitions should help Belarus control the central areas.
**⭐ Kirill Pechenin – Defender**
Pechenin is an important defensive option.
His role may involve maintaining defensive balance while also supporting attacking movements from the left side.
**⭐ Fedor Lapoukhov – Goalkeeper**
Lapoukhov is among the goalkeeping options identified in the available probable-team information.
If selected, his responsibilities should be relatively manageable compared with the pressure faced by the San Marino goalkeeper, although concentration will remain important.
### 🧠 Impact of Team News
Shumanskiy's suspension removes an attacking contributor, but Belarus retain other important options.
Their overall squad structure should allow them to maintain their preferred tactical approach.
The key question is whether they can translate their territorial advantage into goals without taking unnecessary risks.
---
## 9. 🧠 Expected Lineups and Tactical Formations
The following formations and starting selections are editorial predictions, not confirmed starting lineups.
Final team sheets may differ because of tactical decisions, fitness assessments and late selection changes.
### ⚪ 🔵 San Marino – Expected Formation: 4-3-1-2
San Marino may use a narrow formation designed to protect central areas and provide support to two forwards.
| Position | Predicted Player |
|---|---|
| GK | Edoardo Colombo |
| RB | Simone Giocondi |
| CB | Dante Rossi |
| CB | Filippo Fabbri |
| LB | Alessandro Tosi |
| CM | Alessandro Golinucci |
| CM | Marcello Mularoni |
| CM | Samuele Zannoni |
| AM | Lorenzo Lazzari |
| ST | Nicola Nanni |
| ST | Fausto Salicioni |
### ⚪ 🔵 San Marino Tactical Diagram
```text
NANNI SALICIONI
Lazzari
Zannoni Golinucci Mularoni
Tosi Fabbri Rossi Giocondi
Colombo